CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-07-23T04:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-07-23T04:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40201/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 and as a faint partial halo to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Source is a small filament seen lifting off at 2025-07-23T02:06Z. Post-eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 spanning from S00 to S10 and from W15 to W25, but the filamentary material itself can be seen lifting off as far north as N20E05. POSSIBLE arrival observed around 2025-07-26T07:37Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components (Btotal maximum: 11nT) followed by a smooth rotation, likely indicating the presence a flux rope. A gradual increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~480 to 580 km/s. From Sanchita Pal, LASSOS team: The start time of the flux rope is likely around 2025-07-26T16:20Z, after that the density and temperature decrease. Before this timestamp, density is high. This preceding signature with high density could be because a pile-up of the solar wind material or could be a sheath. Inside the flux rope B_radial component is high, it means the flux rope can be crossed with a larger distance from the center to the spacecraft propagation path. Mostly small/no-rotation in field line vector means either(1) the CME flux rope is crossed through flank or (2) the flux rope is crossed by spacecraft keeping a large distance from the center.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-26T07:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-26T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50724 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Jul 2025, 1239UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 151 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 026 Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 530) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 08:00 UTC on July 23. The CME is probably associated with a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant seen in SUVI 304 data from around 02:30 UTC on July 23. Preliminary analysis suggests that the ICME may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on July 26. Further analysis of the event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. ------------------------------ #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A faint, slow partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 530) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 08:00 UTC on July 23. The CME is probably associated with a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant seen in SUVI 304 data from around 02:30 UTC on July 23. Preliminary analysis suggests that the CME has a projected velocity around 300 km/s and the ICME may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on July 26. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 42.75 hour(s)
Difference: -7.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-07-24T12:52Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy